Output vs Outcomes:
The Velocity Paradox

Nikita Miller

SVP Head of Product, The Knot Worldwide

Leading Teams

The Core Problem

Why Teams Chase the Wrong Metric

"Some folks, myself included at certain points, swung way too far on the outcomes train and forgot that output is an indicator of that. If you're not shipping things to market quickly enough, then it just doesn't matter that much."

Teams talk about goals endlessly but forget to measure execution speed
Outcomes without output = wishful thinking, not strategy
The more tries you have at something, the likelier you are to get it right
Output velocity is the actual predictor of outcome success

The Framework

Nikita's Approach to Successful Teams

Roles & Responsibilities: Clarity on day one. Who owns what? What are the expectations?
Collaboration Cadence: Regular sync points with clear decision frameworks, not endless meetings
Cross-functional Alignment: Product, design, engineering all rowing in the same direction
Context Over Control: Give teams context, not directives

12-18mo

time horizon for wedding projects

5+ years

Nikita at Trello

The patternSuccessful teams all have explicit role clarity. The difference between high-performing and struggling teams is almost always: does everyone know what they're accountable for?

The Output Playbook

How to Diagnose & Fix Velocity

Ask "What did you deliver?" Not what are you planning, what were you thinking about. Just: what shipped?
Then ask deeper: "What made it to production? How long did it take? What was the cycle time?"
Look at the ratio: How much time on optimizations vs. big bets? If simple things take quarters, velocity is broken
Check decision velocity: How long from "we need to do X" to actually deciding to do it?

Where velocity breaks

For PMs: Decision-making takes too long. We spend weeks defining what to build.

For Engineers: Tickets aren't broken into small pieces. Unclear requirements from PM make it hard to execute.

Nikita's approach to conversations

Don't lecture or shame. Just ask questions. "What did you ship this sprint?" Let the data speak. Most teams will see the gap themselves.

The Tension

Output vs Outcomes in Practice

Goals matter, but speed matters more
You learn by shipping, not by planning perfectly
Competition doesn't care about your strategy doc
PM's job: drive urgency without creating chaos

Nikita's mantra"Product managers need to drive urgency. Mostly reminding people often about what we're shipping and how fast we're getting ideas to market."

Contrarian

The Product Manager Myths Nikita Challenges

✗We need perfect clarity before buildingINSTEAD →✓ Ship a simple version, get feedback, iterate. The market teaches you faster than meetings.

✗Outcomes are what matter; output is just activityINSTEAD →✓ Output velocity IS a lead indicator of outcomes. No shipping = no learning = no outcomes.

✗We don't have real competition, we're uniqueINSTEAD →✓ Someone is shipping better and faster than you. Urgency isn't optional; it's survival.

✗Complex products need complex planningINSTEAD →✓ Even complex bets ship faster with small, clear, broken-down tasks. Complexity is no excuse for slowness.

Based on Nikita Miller's episode on Lenny's Podcast. All ideas on this page are from the episode.Watch on YouTube Follow @nikitadyer on X

GO DEEPER IN THE EPISODE

03:56 How Nikita helped Trello develop enterprise features 09:41 Trello vs. Jira 10:28 Similarities and differences between building for users at The Knot vs. Trello 15:02 Pro tips for Trello users 15:41 Nikita’s roles and responsibilities framework 21:10 Why scrum masters are disappearing and what shifts are happening on teams 21:56 Why every team should have a data scientist embedded in it 23:27 The proper cadence for the rules and responsibilities framework, and problems around execution 25:27 Outcomes and output 28:34 The importance of urgency, and how to cultivate a sense of urgency 29:52 How to determine if your team is moving quickly enough 31:03 Prioritization between big bets and optimizations 31:29 Questions Nikita asks to understand her team’s speed 33:30 Changes in the field of product management 36:42 Advice for people who want to get into product 38:40 Why being a PM is hard, and thoughts on work-life balance 43:03 How to manage remote teams and how to do successful, short, in-person meetups 47:59 The importance of having overlapping work hours and onboarding in person 49:09 The advantages of working in different cultures 52:58 The question Nikita finds most useful 55:07 Lightning round

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