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Plan Your Chess Moves:
From 1 to Billions

Peter Deng
GP at Felicis · Former VP Product, OpenAI
2025
The Principle

Think Before You Act

PLANBUILDSCALE
"You have to plan your chess moves out in advance. You have to really think before you act and build systems that were going to let you go sustainably faster."
  • Strategic thinking precedes tactical execution
  • Sustainable speed comes from building systems, not rushing
  • Each decision compounds: small choices shape billion-unit outcomes
Framework

Five Archetypes of Product Managers

CONSUMERGROWTHBUSINESS/GMPLATFORMRESEARCH/AI
  • Consumer: Obsessed with details, taste, what people use, how they feel
  • Growth: Data-driven, measurement-obsessed, optimize every funnel
  • Business/GM: Margins, incentives, marketplace dynamics, business models
  • Platform: Wired to build tools for builders; overlooked but essential
  • Research/AI: Half researcher, half engineer; understands models deeply
Peter's insightEveryone has a primary archetype and a secondary. The mix matters. Missing one archetype = blind spots.
The Real Work

Education Will Change More Than You Think

The education shift

As humans have access to infinite information (Google) and now infinite capability (AI), the skill differentiator shifts from memorization and coding to asking the right questions and thinking at higher levels of abstraction.

The brain-rewiring story

At 9 years old, Peter's son built a custom GPT that generates sentences containing every letter of the alphabet. That would be nearly impossible to program. But asking the right question? That's the new literacy.

  • Calculator didn't stop math—it freed people to do higher-level math
  • Google made memorization obsolete; AI will make basic coding obsolete
  • The next skill: how to think at a higher abstraction level?
  • Co-evolution with technology is already happening (18-month attitude shift)
  • Curiosity + the ability to ask questions = the differentiator
The Hiring Principle

In 6 Months, They Tell You What to Do

  • Best investment you can make: hiring the right people
  • Team composition > individual brilliance
  • Spikes in different areas = complementary strengths
  • Spend as much time recruiting as on product strategy
  • At OpenAI: more proud of the team than the product itself
The gaugeIf in 6 months you're still telling someone what to do, you hired the wrong person. Autonomy and leadership should emerge in 2 quarters.
Contrarian

What Actually Matters vs. What Gets Talked About

The product itself is what drives adoptionINSTEAD →Price, ETA, and perception matter more. At Uber, the product was the holistic experience—not the interface.
Hiring is about finding smart peopleINSTEAD →Hiring is about building a team of spikes and complementary strengths that lift each other.
AGI will solve everything automaticallyINSTEAD →AGI is necessary but not sufficient. Builders still have to channel it into products people love. Hustle is still required.
There's one way to be a great PMINSTEAD →Five archetypes exist. Fit the PM to the problem and market. Consumer PM will fail in boring regulated industries.
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